Oct 132015


The San Diego-Tijuana Earthquake Planning Scenario update is an ongoing bi-national project led by EERI, SEAOSD and UCSD to quantify the expected physical damage and socio-economic impacts of a M 6.9 earthquake affecting the San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan region. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve the region’s earthquake awareness, preparedness, public policy, seismic retrofit policy, and disaster resilience. The San Diego-Tijuana cross-border metropolitan area is the largest in the world and its international border crossing is one of the busiest with over 60 million crossings per year (SANDAG).
The first Earthquake Planning Scenario for San Diego was published in 1990 titled “Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake, San Diego-Tijuana Metropolitan Area,” prepared by the California Geological Survey (CGS) as Special Publication 100. This scenario included the San Diego and Tijuana metropolitan areas, and was designed for International planning where significant earthquake damage could occur on both sides of the border. A team of engineers, geologists, social scientists, public officials and private industry leaders is collaborating to update this scenario. The group has subdivided its efforts into three working groups: the geo-hazards group defining the earthquake hazard, the buildings and infrastructure group estimating the expected physical damage, and socio-economic group assessing the social and economic impacts on the region.
This presentation will address the current progress on both the Mexican and U.S. sides for the first two working groups. First, a summary of the overall project will be provided. The progress and challenges encountered in defining the earthquake hazard, fault rupture length, and secondary geologic hazards will be described. Finally, the progress made to date on inventorying the building and infrastructure stock in Tijuana and San Diego and assessing the expected damage will be presented. Opportunities for SEAOSD and EERI members to participate in the study will also be discussed.

Part 1: Introduction (Lelli Van Den Einde).
Part 2: WG1, Earthquake Hazard (Diane Murbach, Jorge Meneses).
Part 3: WG2, Damage to Buildings and Infrastructure (Alvaro Celestino, Tony Court, Roberto Ruiz-Salas).

1. Dr. Lelli Van Den Einde, Teaching Professor, Structural Engineering, UCSD; Vice-Chair EERI San Diego.
2. Diane Murbach, CEG, Murbach Geotech, Past-President SDAG.
3. Dr. Jorge Menses, GE, Chair EERI San Diego, Group Delta Consultants Inc.
4. Alvaro Celestino, SE, Degenkolb Engineers, San Diego.
5. Anthony Court, SE, A. B. Court & Associates, Past-President SEAOSD.
6. Roberto Ruiz-Salas, PE, Kimley-Horn & Associates Inc., San Diego.

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